Bitcoin ETF: SEC's Quick Feedback, Warnings, and Odds Hint Imminent Approval

Now, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) only has two working days to announce its decision on spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) as the Wednesday deadline is looming. Although the regulator rejected and delayed its decision for years, this time, the industry is optimistic for approval.

The optimism is directly reflected in the Bitcoin price, which tests the $47,000 level. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at more than $46,700 apiece, gaining above 6.3 percent in the last 24 hours.

According to the popular Fear and Greed Index, the crypto market is facing “Extreme Greed” at the highest level since October 2021.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 76 ~ Extreme Greed
Current price: $46,962 pic.twitter.com/7PINVL27tD

— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) January 9, 2024

"A Bitcoin spot ETF will significantly increase the liquidity and total volume of Bitcoin traded. This, in turn, shall benefit derivative markets by making it easier and cheaper to hedge positions, enter and exit trades, and execute sophisticated options strategies," Charles d'Haussy, CEO dYdX Foundation told Finance Magnates.

SEC Is Responding Actively

The potential Bitcoin ETF issuers submitted their documents with the SEC on Monday detailing fees for the potential product. Interestingly, the agency sent comments to a set of prospective issuers on the same day, which is very unusual, Coindesk reported.

Really this just shows how quickly the SEC is turning these things around. Borderline unheard of to send over a document to the SEC in the morning and get comments back the same day (I think)

If they wanted to delay -- the issuers wouldn't have gotten comments back tonight

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) January 9, 2024

The comments from the regulator addressed minor details in the amended S-1 forms, and the issuers must file the updated document by the end of Tuesday. Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe BZX also filed the amended 19b-4 documents showing strong anticipation for the Bitcoin ETF approval.

Two Bloomberg analysts are further anticipating the approval of Bitcoin ETF before the Wednesday deadline with 90 percent odds in favor. The odds at Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, are showing 85 percent odds in favor of approving a Bitcoin ETF by January 15.

People asking me if we changed odds. No, we still holding line at 90% odds of approval by Jan 10 (aka this cycle), the same odds we've had for months (before it was cool/safe). What we watching for now: more amended/final filings to roll in and clarity on in-kind vs cash creates https://t.co/uiWgfxOfzz

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 29, 2023

Hints from the Regulator?

The SEC's Chief, Gary Gensler, has always been critical of Bitcoin. On Monday, he posted a thread on X (formerly Twitter), warning against the risks of crypto investments. “Investments in crypto assets also can be exceptionally risky & are often volatile,” he wrote.

2⃣ Investments in crypto assets also can be exceptionally risky & are often volatile. A number of major platforms & crypto assets have become insolvent and/or lost value. Investments in crypto assets continue to be subject to significant risk.

— Gary Gensler (@GaryGensler) January 8, 2024

In another warning, the SEC officially reissued its warning against the “Fear of Missing Out” phenomenon in crypto investments last Friday.

Although both warnings would be ordinary at any other time, the fact that both came at the same time and days ahead of the decision might indicate the chances of approval.