The Bitcoin halving, an important event written into the cryptocurrency's code, is two days away. This event, which occurs roughly every four years, reduces the rewards for Bitcoin miners by half. The cryptocurrency community is abuzz with anticipation ahead of the halving, especially given the recent developments, such as the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and improved crypto regulations.

Understanding Bitcoin Halving

The 2024 halving is expected to have an impact throughout the entire financial system as retail investors gain exposure to Bitcoin through ETFs. This could result in increased crypto transactions, trading volume, investment, and speculation in the sector, Finance Magnates reported. According to the countdown by Binance, the Bitcoin halving event will occur in the next two days.

Following the halving, miners often experience a significant reduction in revenue. Additionally, the reduction in selling pressure can contribute to increased trading volume and price volatility in the market. Goldman Sachs recently cautioned investors against associating Bitcoin halving with price surges, Coindesk reported. This is because continued price gains rely on strong inflows into spot ETFs and not just the halving.

While previous halvings have been followed by price appreciations, Goldman has pointed out that various macroeconomic factors play a significant role. The firm highlighted that the time taken to reach peak values in the past significantly varied. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment during past halvings differed from the current landscape, marked by high inflation and interest rates.

Bitcoin ETFs and Market Dynamics

Similarly, Goldman emphasized in a report by Bloomberg the importance of considering other factors, such as the adoption of spot ETFs, in driving Bitcoin's price. The recent rally in BTC prices, fueled by inflows into U.S.-based spot ETFs, indicates that a significant portion of post-halving expectations may have already been priced in.

Fred Thiel, the CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc., echoed Goldman's sentiment, suggesting that the success of ETF approvals has accelerated price appreciation typically observed after halvings. However, Thiel acknowledged the potential impact of the halving on Bitcoin's supply dynamics and emphasized miners' optimism towards the event.

Bitcoin Cash

Recently, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) experienced its own halving. After the event, the cryptocurrency forked from Bitcoin and dropped 15%. According to Coindesk, this has prompted crypto traders to reassess their expectations of an immediate price surge in Bitcoin post-halving.

Bitcoin Cash, created in 2017, has historically been viewed as a measure of Bitcoin's market sentiment. Its recent rally, followed by a sharp decline post-halving, conveys caution regarding Bitcoin's upcoming halving.

The decline in the price of Bitcoin Cash was accompanied by the collapse in open interest for BCH futures. This trend indicates a shift in market dynamics. Additionally, negative funding rates across major exchanges reportedly underscore a potential unwinding of bullish sentiment.

Insights from Analysts and Experts

The investment banking giant JPMorgan anticipates a sell-off price of $42,000 once the halving hype subsides. The impending reduction in miners' rewards of 50% could lead to increased selling pressure, potentially impacting Bitcoin's price trajectory in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) recently experienced a significant decline in holdings. According to a report by Cointelegraph, the fund dropped by half from its trading debut in January to 309,871 BTC as of April 16, 2024.

Since its inception, GBTC has faced a massive sell-off, significantly impacting Bitcoin prices. The reason attributed to this outflow is the high trading fees, with GBTC initially having the highest fees among US spot Bitcoin ETFs, set at 1.5%. This discrepancy in fees has prompted other ETFs to lower their fees, ranging between 0.2% and 0.4%.

In contrast, BlackRock's IBIT offered a competitive fee of 0.25% at launch. Thus, IBIT has experienced an extraordinary surge, increasing holdings by over 10,000% since its debut. Despite the lack of direct correlation, the surge has added to the significant Bitcoin-related events.

Bitcoin ETF Landscape

Overall, the collective holdings of the ten spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in the US reached approximately 862,162 BTC, valued at $54.7 billion as of April 16, 2024. While the decline of GBTC and the surge of IBIT dominate headlines, other ETF providers have accumulated significant holdings, contributing to the dynamic landscape of Bitcoin investments.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining profitability has experienced a significant downturn of 75% over the past three years. According to Stocklytics.com, profitability dropped from March 2021 to March 2024.

This trend is attributed to various factors, including the rising costs associated with mining operations and the impact of halving events on miners' rewards. The metric used to measure Bitcoin mining profitability is the hash price, denoted in dollars per terrahash (USD/TH). This metric has been influenced by several factors, including the price of Bitcoin, transaction fees, network complexity, and block subsidies.