Bitcoin Trading- BTC/USD Technical Analysis, Aug 21: Will the rally continue?

In short, it's a tough call. There are factors pointing in both directions. BTC/USD is coming off a rise of 10% within 24h and a 67% recovery from its Flash Crash to $309 on BTC-e. The question is if the rally is slowing down and Bitcoin settling for the mid-term, effectively doing enough justice to mirror the pace and magnitude from the way down while recouping its losses.

Or, are the bears out of the market, having dumped their holdings on heavy volume- and we are on our way back to the low $600's, a stronghold of stability for a longer duration than the recent downtrend. That $600 era's effects are still felt now, the 200-day day moving average (MA) barely flinching from the recent sell-off, hovering around $570.

Trading at $525, BTC is at least back to within roughly 10% of the 200-day MA. But it is still caught in its greatest period of discounting to this level since prior to the May rally. A move to within 5% of this level- which at $550, also happens to be its previously solid level of support- would make a more convincing case for further reversal.

Not counting the low from the flash crash, BTC's slowing down in its recovery near the 61.8% retracement level can also be of technical significance and may signal a pause to the recovery.