BTC/USD Technical Analysis – 4th May 2014

Bitcoin has been falling steadily this weekend, although it seems unlikely there will be much movement from now until tomorrow.

At the end of last week, I posted the following BTC/USD Daily chart, whilst performing the Fibonacci study from the low of last week on Monday at 412, until the high of this month on the 1st, at 453.

Where I elaborated that, "Each time the bulls threaten to take price above 444, the bears, aided by 23.6% halt them in their tracks, with rejection after rejection. That’s four times in four days price has threatened to break... whether it can break this level, is another matter, since as we’ve seen, that line is becoming increasingly sturdy – it may well reject price, sending it back down with further vigour."

So I'm hardly surprised for the market to have done exactly that - as can be seen from the current BTC/USD D1 chart below (click to expand):

The problem now is, there are conflicting technicals at work, e.g. we have the Stochastics looking rather messy, with the %K and %D almost crossing over each other twice in a matter of a couple of bars - this often indicates choppy price action, especially when corroborated with further inconsistencies between other major technical indicators, such as the Parabolic SAR dots above the candles, whilst the Awesome Oscillator appear bullish, hence I'm not optimistic about a clear direction being established in the immediate future.