NMC/USD Technical Analysis – 28th March 2014

Namecoin loses more than 25% of its value in just over 24 hours, although this morning sparked some significant recovery.

Let's take a closer look at the NMC/USD intraday M30 chart below (click to expand):

I've performed the Fibonacci study from the last major swing high at 2.835 until the current low at 2.111.

The first thing we notice is the smooth and consistent trajectory of the drop. A good indication of this is the middle Bollinger band, you can see how not once was there a bump in the middle line, it's continued downwards for a number of hours, indeed accelerating it's steepness until this morning.

If we zoom out to the Daily timeframe, we'll be able to see that actually, today's low is a Fibonacci extension, specifically the 261.8% extension:

Going back to the initial M30 chart, we can also see how at the point of the reversal, there were a number of technicals which converged together. The Stochastics were oversold and had started crossing up, and by the next candle both the Accelerator Oscillator and the Awesome Oscillator had turned green.

Thus price managed to recover 50% of it's losses (circled in red), but it's hard to see much more of a retrace today.