With 2013 coming to an end, predictions on the payment industry for 2014 are everywhere.
PayPal’s blog published a post from President David Marcus with 6 predictions on the payment industry for 2014.
1. Retail retaliation
With conventional retail taking a back seat to online and mobile transactions, and the growing popularity of “Showrooming”, retailers are expected to fight back this year. We should expect to see more retailers offering online and mobile outlets, with mobile checkout, same day delivery and local pick-up options.
“In recent years, technology innovation from companies has disrupted traditional retail by making it easy for consumers to browse in a store and then buy online at the cheapest possible price. “
2. Mobile will continue to rise
The fast paced growth of mobile payments we are experiencing as of late seem to indicate a solid trend that will not stop or slow down anytime soon. More mobile payment options and solutions are being introduced and their presence in the marketplace is undeniable. More retailers, online and offline, will be embracing mobile payment options.
“This will lead to a flood of new payment experiences built on technologies such as sensors, geolocation, and the cloud that will soon make standing in a long checkout line and paying with a card will seem like something out of the Stone Age.”
3. Mobile operating systems will take over checkout
The infiltration of tablets shows them slowly replacing traditional computers and laptops. The same goes for checkout solutions. More companies are developing applications for these smart devices and they work seamlessly with smartphones and other tablets as a payment method.
“Last year, I predicted the beginning of the end of the fixed-location cash register in favor of mobile checkout technology. In 2014, the entire retail infrastructure will follow suit.”
4. Bitcoin will double in price
Bitcoin will continue to gain popularity, however Marcus believes it will not easily position itself as an actual currency. This is rather interesting as it tends to make Bitcoin appear an extremely volatile and unstable store of value with no intrinsic value whatsoever. In order to be less speculative, Bitcoin must gain in volume exchange on goods and services, and this can only be achieved by increasing its use as a currency. Denying that this could happen is just another way of condemning Bitcoin.
“I predict that the value of Bitcoin still has the potential to double by the same time next year. But I believe it will have a hard time becoming mainstream as a currency”
5. Start-up disruption
The growth of new smaller companies is putting the heavy hitters on edge. As more start-ups enter the market with refreshing takes on Ecommerce and Mcommerce, Marcus expects the larger industry leaders to take suit and ramp up their R&D to provide new and innovative ideas.
“In 2014, you’ll see larger Payments entities scramble to accelerate the pace of their innovation to catch up to these smaller and more nimble competitors.”
6. More brands, fewer competitors
With new entries in the Ecommerce arena causing a disruption to the larger companies, we should see more Mergers and Acquisitions. Instead of coming up with new ideas, larger companies will simply buy them, similar to PayPal’s acquisition of BraintTree.
“Some of today’s bright young firms will never achieve the scale to survive without joining forces with someone bigger. This will lead to a wave of acquisitions in 2014.”
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