Cotton prices have plunged since May 2014, due to global shift in production in the wake of the rise of India. Sensus Capital's Vladimir Petropoljac goes from the fields where it is produced to your portfolio.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Vladimir Petropoljac is the Head of Business Development at Sensus Capital Markets and the author of "Rallied! The Alternative Guide to Becoming a Trader." His background is in asset management where he spent many happy years.
Cotton is the soft fiber that grows around the seeds of the cotton plant. Cotton is most
often spun into thread and used to make a soft, breathable textile, which is the most widely used natural fiber cloth in clothing today. Africa and South America are large providers of cotton.
Cotton futures have been trading in the U.S. since 1870 at New York’s original futures Exchange . The NYBOT cotton options market, opening in 1984, represents one of the most active agricultural options markets in the world.
Although in the past, there were many state cotton exchanges, the NYCE and the Memphis Cotton Exchange are still in operation today.
Successful cultivation of cotton requires a long growing season, and production of the crop for a given year usually starts soon after harvesting the preceding autumn.
Cotton trading contracts are for March, May, July, October, December (Current month plus one or more of the next 23 succeeding months). The last cotton trading day is seventeen business days from end of spot month.
Cotton Market
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) sold 1,100 bales on the first day of auction creating international curiosity in the days.
According to an official notification, CCI initiated electronic auction on January 27th to sell an initial quantity of 5,100 bales (170 Kgs each) at a price higher than the market. The initial variety to be disposed is Bunny Brahma (31mm in length), which is normally suited for fine counts.
The reason for this is that the main consideration for spinners and cotton merchants is to have price stability. The excess cotton production in India and the recent China import policy has brought enormous price instability at this time, compared to the previous year.
As is clearly visible in the charts above, cotton prices have plunged since May 2014. The reason is very simple. Global reserves were at an all-time high and India became the world’s largest producer. At the same time, China cut imports because of record inventories.
International cotton trade has been constrained by Chinese policies and trade has been changing its focus from China to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Taiwan and Turkey.
What’s Next for Cotton?
The National Cotton Council's survey of U.S. cotton producers is underway. Results that will be released on February 7th could be expected to predict a decline in acreage for the 2015/16 season. In terms of production, a decline in U.S. plantings may be partially offset by improved growing conditions in West Texas.
Rainfall in the region was higher than average during the 2014 calendar year, and if rain continues to fall in 2015, lower abandonment rates and higher yields could be possible in that part of the cotton belt.
Lower acreage and production in 2015/16 may inhibit further increases in stocks in certain exporting countries next crop year. Since India's acreage has only been flat or higher in recent years, India may prove an exception.
Given limited Indian warehousing capabilities, the more Indian cotton that is produced and in search of buyers, the greater the downward pressure there may be on both Indian and world prices.
This article is part of the Forex Magnates Community project. If you wish to become a guest contributor, please get in touch with our Community Manager and UGC Editor Leah Grantz leahg@forexmagnates.com or fill out this form.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Vladimir Petropoljac is the Head of Business Development at Sensus Capital Markets and the author of "Rallied! The Alternative Guide to Becoming a Trader." His background is in asset management where he spent many happy years.
Cotton is the soft fiber that grows around the seeds of the cotton plant. Cotton is most
often spun into thread and used to make a soft, breathable textile, which is the most widely used natural fiber cloth in clothing today. Africa and South America are large providers of cotton.
Cotton futures have been trading in the U.S. since 1870 at New York’s original futures Exchange . The NYBOT cotton options market, opening in 1984, represents one of the most active agricultural options markets in the world.
Although in the past, there were many state cotton exchanges, the NYCE and the Memphis Cotton Exchange are still in operation today.
Successful cultivation of cotton requires a long growing season, and production of the crop for a given year usually starts soon after harvesting the preceding autumn.
Cotton trading contracts are for March, May, July, October, December (Current month plus one or more of the next 23 succeeding months). The last cotton trading day is seventeen business days from end of spot month.
Cotton Market
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) sold 1,100 bales on the first day of auction creating international curiosity in the days.
According to an official notification, CCI initiated electronic auction on January 27th to sell an initial quantity of 5,100 bales (170 Kgs each) at a price higher than the market. The initial variety to be disposed is Bunny Brahma (31mm in length), which is normally suited for fine counts.
The reason for this is that the main consideration for spinners and cotton merchants is to have price stability. The excess cotton production in India and the recent China import policy has brought enormous price instability at this time, compared to the previous year.
As is clearly visible in the charts above, cotton prices have plunged since May 2014. The reason is very simple. Global reserves were at an all-time high and India became the world’s largest producer. At the same time, China cut imports because of record inventories.
International cotton trade has been constrained by Chinese policies and trade has been changing its focus from China to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Taiwan and Turkey.
What’s Next for Cotton?
The National Cotton Council's survey of U.S. cotton producers is underway. Results that will be released on February 7th could be expected to predict a decline in acreage for the 2015/16 season. In terms of production, a decline in U.S. plantings may be partially offset by improved growing conditions in West Texas.
Rainfall in the region was higher than average during the 2014 calendar year, and if rain continues to fall in 2015, lower abandonment rates and higher yields could be possible in that part of the cotton belt.
Lower acreage and production in 2015/16 may inhibit further increases in stocks in certain exporting countries next crop year. Since India's acreage has only been flat or higher in recent years, India may prove an exception.
Given limited Indian warehousing capabilities, the more Indian cotton that is produced and in search of buyers, the greater the downward pressure there may be on both Indian and world prices.
This article is part of the Forex Magnates Community project. If you wish to become a guest contributor, please get in touch with our Community Manager and UGC Editor Leah Grantz leahg@forexmagnates.com or fill out this form.
MAP FinTech Integrates Regulatory Solutions with Your Bourse for Brokers
FMLS:24 | Shaping the Next Era of Financial Evolution
FMLS:24 | Shaping the Next Era of Financial Evolution
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Join over 2,500 industry professionals, engage with 150+ expert speakers, and discover endless opportunities with 70+ top exhibitors. FMLS:24 is where senior executives and decision-makers gather to close deals, forge new partnerships, and strengthen connections with long-term clients.
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FMLS:24 | Shaping the Next Era of Financial Evolution
FMLS:24 | Shaping the Next Era of Financial Evolution
Welcome to FMLS:24 – the premier event where influential brands and leaders in trading, payments, fintech, and digital assets come together!
Join over 2,500 industry professionals, engage with 150+ expert speakers, and discover endless opportunities with 70+ top exhibitors. FMLS:24 is where senior executives and decision-makers gather to close deals, forge new partnerships, and strengthen connections with long-term clients.
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👉 Don't miss out – secure your ticket now at https://events.financemagnates.com/ZQEYy0?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmls24-awareness&utm_medium=video&RefId=MLS%3A24+Video+Promo
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Welcome to FMLS:24 – the premier event where influential brands and leaders in trading, payments, fintech, and digital assets come together!
Join over 2,500 industry professionals, engage with 150+ expert speakers, and discover endless opportunities with 70+ top exhibitors. FMLS:24 is where senior executives and decision-makers gather to close deals, forge new partnerships, and strengthen connections with long-term clients.
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FM's Andrea Badiola Mateos at LSEG's Cyprus event
FM's Andrea Badiola Mateos at LSEG's Cyprus event
FM's Andrea Badiola Mateos at speaking in a panel discussion at LSEG's Cyprus event
FM's Andrea Badiola Mateos at speaking in a panel discussion at LSEG's Cyprus event
The Role of PAMM, MAM & Copy Trading in Business Growth Strategies | Webinar
The Role of PAMM, MAM & Copy Trading in Business Growth Strategies | Webinar
The copy trading market is projected to double in size, growing from $2.2 billion to $4 billion by the end of this decade. In light of this, brokers and financial institutions are increasingly adopting PAMM, MAM, and Copy Trading solutions to scale operations and drive profitability. In this insightful webinar, Sergey Ryzhavin, Product Owner at B2COPY, outlines the advanced features of the B2COPY platform, showcasing how it enhances Copy Trading, PAMM, and MAM performance. Sergey also explores strategies for using these tools to attract new clients, improve customer engagement, and create additional revenue streams.
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The copy trading market is projected to double in size, growing from $2.2 billion to $4 billion by the end of this decade. In light of this, brokers and financial institutions are increasingly adopting PAMM, MAM, and Copy Trading solutions to scale operations and drive profitability. In this insightful webinar, Sergey Ryzhavin, Product Owner at B2COPY, outlines the advanced features of the B2COPY platform, showcasing how it enhances Copy Trading, PAMM, and MAM performance. Sergey also explores strategies for using these tools to attract new clients, improve customer engagement, and create additional revenue streams.
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Join us at FMLS:24 to connect with global institutional brokers. Secure your spot today! #fmls24
Join us at FMLS:24 to connect with global institutional brokers. Secure your spot today! #fmls24