In the midst of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the United States faces a new concern: an impending consumer debt crisis. As the epidemic continues to disrupt people's lives and livelihoods, it has worsened underlying consumer debt difficulties.
The Consumer Debt Crisis
Consumer debt in the United States has steadily increased over the years, and now includes credit card debt, school loans, auto loans, and mortgages. The total outstanding consumer debt in the United States reached a whopping $14.8 trillion in the second quarter of 2021, according to the Federal Reserve. This includes over $1.6 trillion in credit card debt, $1.56 trillion in auto loans, and a whopping $1.57 trillion in student loan debt.
The Effects of the Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the consumer debt situation tremendously. Many Americans have been forced to rely on credit cards and loans to cover necessary needs as a result of job losses and income disruptions. While federal stimulus checks were a lifeline for many, they were frequently used to pay down debt or cover immediate necessities rather than increasing overall economic spending.
The Economic Implications
The growing consumer debt burden has serious repercussions for the economy and financial markets:
- Default Risks: As debt levels rise, so does the potential of widespread defaults on loan and credit card payments, which could result in significant losses for financial institutions and investors.
- Reduced Consumer Spending: As consumers devote more of their income to debt repayment, their ability to engage in discretionary spending declines. This decrease in consumer spending can have a detrimental influence on firms across industries and lead to economic downturn.
- Volatility in Financial Markets: A consumer debt crisis might cause market volatility, particularly in bond markets. Investors may reconsider the risk of debt securities, perhaps leading to higher interest rates and a tighter lending market.
- Consumer confidence and spending declines might have a rippling effect throughout the economy, potentially leading in a recession. To offset the negative economic impact, governments may need to deploy extra stimulus measures.
Solutions and Mitigation Measures
Policymakers and financial organizations are experimenting with several solutions to handle the approaching consumer debt crisis and its possible market impact:
- Debt assistance Programs: During the epidemic, initiatives such as payment deferrals, forbearance programs, and interest rate reductions gave temporary assistance to borrowers. However, their long-term viability remains a problem.
- Tightened Lending Standards: In order to reduce risk, financial institutions are reevaluating their lending practices. This could mean higher lending requirements and a reduced readiness to lend to risky borrowers.
- Financial Education: Financial literacy and education are seen as long-term solutions. Individuals who are empowered to make knowledgeable financial decisions are less likely to accumulate excessive debt.
- Stimulus Measures: The government has proposed more stimulus measures to promote consumer spending and relieve the debt burden. These include proposals on canceling a portion of student loan debt and providing individuals with direct cash payments.
- Regulation and control: To prevent predatory lending and guarantee responsible lending standards, increased regulatory control of financial institutions and lending practices is being considered.
Global Debt: Numbers That Raise Concerns
In 2022, global debt showed signs of receding for the second consecutive year. However, this momentary relief is tempered by the fact that it still lingers well above its already elevated pre-pandemic levels. The total debt, as a percentage of the global GDP, stood at a staggering 238 percent, a whopping 9 percentage points higher than the levels recorded in 2019. In terms of US dollars, global debt reached an eye-watering $235 trillion, marking a $200 billion increase compared to 2021.
This resurgence of global debt raises questions about the world's financial health and its resilience to potential shocks. With public debt stubbornly high and fiscal deficits still creating a fiscal burden, the sustainability of this debt becomes a pressing issue. Governments worldwide have spent significantly to stimulate economic growth and respond to the challenges posed by surging inflation, food, and energy prices. Despite the economic rebound following the tumultuous year of 2020, public debt remains a formidable concern, having declined by a mere 8 percentage points of GDP over the past two years.
Private debt, which encompasses household and non-financial corporate debt, has seen a more rapid reduction, with a drop of 12 percentage points of GDP. Yet, this reduction is insufficient to erase the surges incurred during the pandemic.
The Pervasive Trends in Debt
Even before the pandemic shook the global economy, debt-to-GDP ratios had been on a relentless upward trajectory. Public debt, which tripled since the mid-1970s, reached 92 percent of GDP, or just over $91 trillion, by the end of 2022. Private debt's trajectory mirrors this rise, with a threefold increase to 146 percent of GDP, equivalent to nearly $144 trillion, over the period from 1960 to 2022.
Low-income developing countries have not been immune to this trend. While their debt levels, especially private debt, may appear relatively low when compared to advanced and emerging economies, the rapid increases since the global financial crisis have created challenges and vulnerabilities. More than half of these low-income developing countries face high debt distress, with around one-fifth of emerging markets witnessing sovereign bonds trading at distressed levels.
China has also been a prominent player in this global debt surge, with borrowing consistently outpacing economic growth. Debt-to-GDP ratios in China have reached levels similar to the United States, with total debt standing at approximately $47.5 trillion, though still notably below the U.S. debt level, close to $70 trillion. China also claims the largest share of non-financial corporate debt in the world, at 28 percent.
Addressing Debt Vulnerabilities
In the face of these concerning trends, governments must act swiftly to mitigate debt vulnerabilities and reverse the long-term debt trajectory. For private sector debt, this entails rigorous monitoring of household and non-financial corporate debt burdens, coupled with a vigilant assessment of financial stability risks. Public debt vulnerabilities can be addressed by building a credible fiscal framework, guiding the process of balancing spending needs with debt sustainability.
Low-income developing countries should focus on enhancing their capacity to collect additional tax revenues, while those grappling with unsustainable debt must adopt a comprehensive approach. This approach should encompass fiscal discipline and debt restructuring under the Group of Twenty Common Framework, a multilateral mechanism designed for forgiving and restructuring sovereign debt.
Crucially, the reduction of debt burdens can free up fiscal space for new investments, fostering economic growth in the years to come. Reforms targeting labor and product markets to boost potential output at the national level could significantly contribute to this goal. Moreover, international cooperation on taxation, including carbon taxation, can alleviate pressures on public financing.
The Next Steps
The solution to the consumer debt dilemma is complex and varied. It will take a collaborative effort from government agencies, financial institutions, and individuals. While the full scope of the crisis and its impact on financial markets remain unknown, preemptive actions to limit risks and build a more stable economic climate are critical.
To summarize, rising consumer debt in the United States is a source of concern, with the potential to destabilize financial markets and the broader economy. To address this situation, a combination of relief measures, responsible lending practices, financial education, and government engagement is required. The next several months will be critical in determining whether the oncoming consumer debt crisis can be avoided or if it poses a substantial danger to the stability of US markets.
