Americans are deciding today who their next President will be. The race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is tight, with the outcome expected to be determined by seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The candidate who secures the majority 270 electoral votes will become the next US President.
Although the official declaration of the next president might take some time, exit polls will provide an early indication of public sentiment in the meantime.
The Race to Control the House Continues
Decision Desk HQ reports that Democrats currently have a 57.4% chance of winning the House, a narrow lead that has shrunk over the past few hours. They estimate Democrats could secure 219 seats, just one more than the 218 required for a majority.
Meanwhile, the New York Times shows Republicans holding 181 seats and Democrats 147, with 54 competitive seats still up for grabs. Republicans would need to win just 20 of these to likely gain control, though several remaining seats have a Democratic lean, leaving the final outcome still uncertain.
Trump Leads in Rust Belt Swing States
Trump is currently ahead in the three critical Rust Belt swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Though margins remain close, his leads in Arizona and Georgia are solidifying his path toward a second term as President. At this stage, a win for Harris would require a significant, unexpected shift in vote counts.
Fox News Calls Republican's Senate Control
Though the Presidential race is the main focus, Republicans and Democrats are in a tight battle for Senate and House control. With wins in Ohio and Texas, Republicans now hold 50 seats, just one short of a majority. They also have slight leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, giving them a strong chance to flip these seats. The path to a Republican-controlled Senate is looking likely.
The Associated Press Called North Carolina for Trump
The Associated Press, or AP, has become the second to call North Carolina, one of the key swing states, in Trump's favour. With these projected wins, Trump’s path for a second term in the White House is becoming clear.
Two Swing States Called in Trump’s Favour
Decision Desk HQ has called two swing states, North Carolina and Georgia, in Trump's favour. Although votes are not counted entirely, the former President is projected to win in these two key states.
The key states to watch now are the Rust Belt states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which are still slow to report their results. Pennsylvania is the only state with more than 50% of the votes counted, and Trump is currently leading by around 3 points.
Trump and Harris Held Their Strongholds
Many states, including Texas, Florida, Illinois, and New York, have called the results. The results from all of these states are not surprising – Trump won the Republican-dominated ones, while Harris held the Democrats’ strongholds.
Counting is also ongoing in two key swing states: Pennsylvania and Georgia. While Trump is ahead in Georgia, Harris is leading Pennsylvania. However, these trends might change by the time these two states call their results.
Projections Put Trump in the Lead
Projections from the several red states have put Trump ahead of Harris. Meanwhile, some Harris is projected to win in some strongholds of the Democrats.
State-wise Exit Poll Results
Edison Research has also released preliminary state-wise exit poll results.
Pennsylvania:
- 46% of voters view Trump favourably (down from 48% in 2020)
- 46% view Harris favourably (compared to 50% for Biden in 2020)
Wisconsin:
- 47% of voters view Harris favourably (compared to 50% for Biden in 2020)
- 44% view Trump favourably (up from 43% in 2020)
- 84% of voters are white (down from 86% in 2020)
- 6% are black (unchanged from 2020)
- 5% are Hispanic (up from 4% in 2020)
Nevada:
- 44% of voters view Harris favourably (compared to 52% for Biden in 2020)
- 47% view Trump favourably (down from 48% in 2020)
- 66% of voters are white (up from 65% in 2020)
- 8% are black (up from 7% in 2020)
- 17% are Hispanic (unchanged from 2020)
Michigan:
- 48% of voters view Harris favourably (compared to 51% for Biden in 2020)
- 45% view Trump favourably (unchanged from 2020)
- 79% of voters are white (down from 81% in 2020)
- 11% are black (down from 12% in 2020)
- 6% are Hispanic (up from 3% in 2020)
Georgia:
- 49% of voters view Harris favourably (compared to 50% for Biden in 2020)
- 46% view Trump favourably (unchanged from 2020)
- 57% of voters are white (down from 61% in 2020)
- 30% are black (up from 29% in 2020)
- 8% are Hispanic (up from 7% in 2020)
North Carolina:
- 48% of voters view Harris favourably (compared to 50% for Biden in 2020)
- 43% view Trump favourably (down from 47% in 2020)
- 69% of voters are white (up from 65% in 2020)
- 19% are black (down from 23% in 2020)
- 8% are Hispanic (up from 5% in 2020)
Arizona:
- 46% of voters view Harris favourably (compared to Biden's 49% in the 2020 exit poll)
- 46% of voters view Trump favourably (down from 48% in the 2020 exit poll)
- 63% of voters are white (down from 74% in the 2020 exit poll)
- 4% are black (up from 2% in the 2020 exit poll)
- 26% are Hispanic (up from 19% in the 2020 exit poll)
The First Exit Poll Is Out
Edison Research has released the first exit poll of the day, focusing on voter demographics.
The key findings of the exit polls are as follows:
- 53% of voters are women, up from 52% in 2020
- 71% are white, compared to 67% in 2020
- 57% do not have a college degree, down from 59% in 2020
- 45% said their personal finances are worse than four years ago, versus 20% in 2020
- Top issues influencing votes: 31% economy, 11% immigration, 14% abortion, 35% democracy, and 4% foreign policy
- 44% view Trump favourably, down from 46% in 2020
- 48% view Harris favourably, compared to 52% for Biden in 2020
