EUR/USD Trades Flat After Retail Sales Data

Talking Points

• The EUR/USD Fails to Breakout on Retail Sales Data
• Bullish Breakouts Begin Over 1.1151
• SSI Reads Negative at -1.23

EUR/USD 30 Minute

(Created using Marketscope 2.0 Charts)

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The EUR/USD has opened Tuesday’s trading moving inside of a 53-pip range. Despite today’s US Advanced Retail Sales figures posting better than expected at -0.1%, the pair has failed to breakout from today’s key values of support and resistance Currently prices are trading off of resistance which is found at the R3 pivot point at a price of 1.1123. If prices remain range bound, traders will look for prices to retest range support, which is found today at a price of 1.1070.

If prices do attempt to breakout, traders should continue to monitor both the R4 and S4 pivot points. Today’s R4 pivot point is displayed above at a price of 1.1151. A move to this point would be considered significant, as it would be the first bullish breakout since last Thursdays ECB rate decision. Conversely, bearish breakouts begin underneath the S4 pivot point at a price of 1.1042. In either breakout scenario, traders may extrapolate 1X of today’s 53 pip trade range. This places bullish breakout targets near 1.1204 while bearish targets begin at 1.0989.

EUR/USD Sentiment is currently slightly negative with SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) reading at -1.23 for the pair. So far, this value is little changed from last week’s reading of -1.25. While this value is not extreme, this continued negative reading suggests further advances in price for the EUR/USD. In the event of a bearish reversal, traders would reasonably expect SSI to flip towards a fresh positive reading.

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